A strong El Niño that developed in the Pacific is increasing drought risk in South Asia and Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa.
The same climate phenomenon can bring heavy rain to East Africa and parts of South America while causing a lack of rain in other regions.
The impact of drought does not end simply with less rain; it can lead to wildfire risks and problems with food production.
3-Line Summary
1. A strong El Niño is increasing drought risk
2. India’s precipitation was 15% below average
3. Regional forecasts and actual damage must be distinguished
Pacific Ocean Temperatures Exceed 2 Degrees
According to data released by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 14, the increase in sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific reached 2 degrees. This meets the threshold for classification as a “very strong” El Niño, commonly referred to in reports as a “super El Niño.”
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which the waters of the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than usual. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) explains that the phenomenon typically occurs at intervals of 2–7 years, beginning between March and June and potentially becoming strongest between November and February of the following year.
This El Niño began developing in June 2026, and forecasting agencies expect it to peak in early 2027. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expected the phenomenon to continue through March–May 2027. However, this is a forecast of future weather and does not mean that the scale of damage in each region has been determined.
India’s Weak Monsoon and Indonesia’s Wildfire Risk
A strong El Niño tends to bring drier-than-usual conditions to South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa. Data from the India Meteorological Department showed that India’s precipitation from June 1 through September 9 was 15% below average. Reports also said that the summer monsoons in India and Pakistan fell short of expectations.
In Indonesia, the dry season and wildfire risk are being discussed together. Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) recorded 5,019 (5019) hotspots through the end of July and identified Sumatra and Kalimantan as areas at elevated risk. The number of hotspots itself is not a confirmed measure of wildfire damage, but it is a signal that warrants vigilance when rainfall is insufficient.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast that precipitation in southern and eastern regions could be below average while temperatures could rise. South Africa’s weather service also expected below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures across most of the country during spring and summer. Drought must be assessed by looking at how rainfall, temperature, and wildfire risk appear together, rather than by relying on a single figure for one region.
Rain-Fed Crops May Be Affected First
The World Food Programme (WFP) warned that a strong El Niño could push at least 4,900 (4900) million additional people into severe hunger by the end of 2027. The forecast is that the number of people facing acute hunger in the 45 countries analyzed could rise from 2억2,500만 (2500) to 2억7,400만 (7400).
Corn and rice, among other crops grown primarily with rainfall, are particularly vulnerable to dry conditions. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) believed that harvests in southern Africa, the Sahel, and South and Southeast Asia could face risks. Conversely, heavy rain and flood risks could increase in East Africa and parts of South America, so El Niño should not be understood immediately as “drought everywhere.”
What should be watched in this situation is that the strength of El Niño and its regional effects do not correspond one-to-one. Even under the common backdrop of a strong El Niño, some places may experience water shortages while others face flooding.
References
Tags #Drought #ElNiño #SuperElNiño #ClimateChange #PacificOceanTemperatures #Monsoon #IndiaPrecipitation #IndonesiaWildfires #AustralianDrought #SouthernAfrica #FoodSecurity #Corn #Rice #WorldFoodProgramme