On September 15, Tropical Depression No. 53 east of Guam was reported as having the potential to develop into Typhoon No. 25 Dujuan.
Attention is focused on the Korean Peninsula’s potential impact, but it is still too early to discuss landfall or a direct impact at this stage.
That is because the timing of the typhoon’s actual development and subsequent changes in the pressure pattern could significantly alter its track.
3-Line Summary
1. Dujuan is at the anticipated typhoon-development stage.
2. It was east of Guam on the morning of the 15th.
3. Its impact on the Korean Peninsula has not yet been confirmed.
Tropical Depression East of Guam Forecast to Develop Within 24 Hours
According to reports citing the Korea Meteorological Administration’s forecast, Tropical Depression No. 53 moved westward at 9 a.m. on the 15th over waters approximately 670㎞ east of Guam. The tropical depression was forecast to develop into Typhoon No. 25 Dujuan (DUJUAN) within 24 hours.
Dujuan is a typhoon name submitted by China and means “azalea.” However, the fact that the name has been mentioned does not mean that the typhoon’s final track or impact on the Korean Peninsula has already been determined. The information presented in the reports is a forecast covering both the tropical depression’s potential development and its anticipated movement afterward.
Forecast Over Waters Southeast of Kagoshima on the 19th–20th
Weekly Chosun reported that the tropical depression was expected to move over waters northeast of Guam on the morning of the 16th and pass north of Guam on the 18th. It then presented a track taking the system over waters approximately 1,130㎞ (1130㎞) southeast of Kagoshima, Japan, on the morning of the 19th, and approximately 790㎞ offshore on the 20th.
The same forecast mentioned a central pressure of 992 hectopascals and maximum winds of 23 meters per second on the morning of the 16th, along with the possibility that the system could develop to around intensity level 3 on the 18th. These were forecast figures for those points in time, not a confirmation of the actual development process or position.
The Track Had Been Fluid Since It Was Tropical Disturbance 90W
Maeil Shinmun reported on the 14th that, if the western Pacific’s Tropical Disturbance 90W developed, it could become a candidate for the name Dujuan. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center had raised its assessment of the possibility of development within 24 hours from “low” to “medium,” while numerical forecast models reportedly converged on gradual organization and movement north-northwestward over the following 36~48 hours.
The report said that multi-ensemble forecasts presented numerous scenarios heading toward central Japan. The areas around Aichi Prefecture and Nagoya, Japan—where the 2026 Aichi-Nagoya Asian Games will be held from September 19 through October 4—were also mentioned as regions whose potential impact should be monitored. However, it said that, at the tropical-disturbance stage, it was impossible to conclude that Nagoya would take a direct hit, and that the track could change significantly within a day depending on the timing of development and the position of the North Pacific High.
It Is Still Difficult to Assess the Impact on the Korean Peninsula and Jeju
Related reports commonly noted that it was still difficult to assess whether the Korean Peninsula and Jeju would be affected. This is because autumn typhoons can have their forecast tracks significantly altered by the pressure pattern around the Korean Peninsula.
Jemin Ilbo also reported that whether Jeju would fall within the system’s area of direct impact remained fluid. The facts that must be distinguished this time are the forecast for the tropical depression to develop into a typhoon and whether an impact on the Korean Peninsula has been confirmed. The former was presented as a forecast as of the 15th, while the latter has not yet been confirmed.
References
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