Typhoon No. 26 Surigae could begin affecting the Okinawa area on September 27.
Based on the forecast, the first areas requiring preparation are coastal and island areas where strong winds and high waves are expected.
However, uncertainty remains over the timing and speed of its subsequent movement toward southern Honshu.
3-Line Summary
1. Surigae forecast to approach Okinawa
2. Increasing possibility of strong winds in the Daitō Islands
3. Timing of its impact on Honshu remains fluid
Winds and Waves Strengthening from 27
Weathernews forecast that Surigae would develop and move northward, reaching strong intensity on September 27. It then expected the storm to gradually turn eastward and pass by September 28 south of Okinawa Main Island and Amami Ōshima, Kagoshima Prefecture.
According to this forecast, winds could gradually strengthen from 27 in Okinawa Main Island, Amami, and the Daitō Islands. Rough seas are expected south of Okinawa, and there was mention of high waves of around 3m, accompanied by swells, potentially developing along the coasts of Okinawa Main Island and the Daitō Islands on the night of 27.
On 28 in particular, there is concern that storm-force winds could blow mainly across the Daitō Islands, and the possibility of heavy rain due to rain clouds was also presented. Weathernews explained that because the typhoon is expected to move slowly, the effects of wind, waves, and rain could last for an extended period.
Okinawa Main Island Could Be Affected Until Around 29
tenki.jp forecast that Surigae could approach the Okinawa region as a strong typhoon until around 29. It reported that very strong winds could blow on Okinawa Main Island from 27 and in the Daitō Islands from 28, with both areas potentially experiencing storm conditions depending on the track.
The same forecast said that waves along the Okinawa coast could gradually rise, producing rough seas. For Okinawa Main Island, the possibility of storm surges around 27–29 and warning-level heavy rain around 28–29 was also presented in conjunction with track conditions.
Accordingly, people in low-lying coastal and estuary areas need to be alert to the risk of flooding, while those near mountain slopes, low-lying land, and rivers should be aware of the possibility of damage from torrential rain. These are not confirmed impacts, but weather-risk forecasts by the outlets for different possible tracks.
The Speed of the Track South of Honshu Is a Key Variable
Both outlets mentioned the possibility that Surigae could move toward southern Honshu after passing south of Okinawa. Weathernews said that if warm, humid air flows toward the autumn rain front stalled south of Honshu, rainfall near the front could intensify.
However, forecast calculations for its subsequent movement speed remain widely divergent. Weathernews explained that the forecast circle appears to have widened because of differences in east-west movement speeds, and the latest forecast does not expect the typhoon itself to approach very close to Honshu.
tenki.jp also reported that many forecasts show the storm passing south of Honshu, but that there are differences in projections of its speed. The announcements from both outlets are future forecasts, and the exact timing of any impact near Honshu has not yet been determined.
References
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