Typhoon No. 26, Surigae, was over the waters east of the Philippines on September 25.
Forecasts indicated that the typhoon could strengthen, move south of Okinawa, and then slow down.
However, there is a wide range of possible tracks afterward, so it is not yet at the stage where the possibility of an impact on mainland Japan can be stated definitively.
3-Line Summary
1. Surigae was over the waters east of the Philippines
2. A forecast called for strong intensity on the 27th
3. The impact on mainland Japan depends on track changes
6:00 on September 25, Over the Waters East of the Philippines
According to reports citing an announcement by the Japan Meteorological Agency, as of 6:00 a.m. on September 25, Typhoon No. 26, Surigae, was moving west-northwest at 20㎞ per hour over the waters east of the Philippines. Its central pressure was 1000hPa, its maximum wind speed near the center was 20m per second, and its maximum instantaneous wind speed was 30m per second.
According to the forecast in the same announcement, the typhoon was expected to reach south of Okinawa on the evening of the 25th. At that time, its central pressure was expected to be 998hPa, and its maximum instantaneous wind speed was expected to be 35m per second. Because the figures are trending upward, it is necessary to consider not only the typhoon’s center position but also the ranges of the area of strong winds and the storm-force wind area.
Forecast of an Approach Southeast of Miyakojima on the 27th
The forecast indicated that after moving northwest on the 26th, the typhoon would reach waters approximately 250㎞ southeast of Miyakojima on the 27th. At that point, it is expected to become a strong typhoon with a central pressure of 975hPa, a maximum wind speed near the center of 35m per second, and a maximum instantaneous wind speed of 50m per second.
The margin of error in the forecast circle also increases. The radius of the forecast circle on the evening of the 25th was 85㎞, but the outlook for the early morning of the 27th gave a radius of 185㎞. Rather than definitively describing the typhoon’s passage through a particular sea area with a single line, it is necessary to understand that dangerous winds and high waves may occur within the forecast range.
Why the Effects on Okinawa and Amami Could Last
tenki.jp reported that after passing near Okinawa, the typhoon could turn eastward and slow down. The outlook is that it will advance south of Japan while maintaining strong intensity on the 29th and could remain nearly stationary over the waters south of Japan through the 30th.
If the typhoon’s movement slows, the effects of wind, waves, and heavy rain could last longer in Okinawa and Amami. The reports mentioned storm-force winds, high waves at warning levels, and the possibility of storm surges. Meanwhile, the impact on areas from Kyushu to Kanto has not yet been confirmed, as the projected tracks diverge. The possibility was also raised that moist air around the typhoon could intensify frontal activity.
References
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