Ahead of Brazil’s presidential election, a hypothetical runoff poll has been released pitting Senator Flávio Bolsonaro against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The gap between the two was 1% point, but because it fell within the poll’s margin of error, no definitive lead can be established.
Attention is also focused on the relationship between President Lula’s announced increase to the social security program and the election landscape.
3-Line Summary
1. Flávio had 42%, and Lula had 41%
2. The margin of error was ±2% points
3. The winner cannot be determined from a 1% point difference
Hypothetical Runoff Showed 42% to 41%
In a Quaest poll reported by O GLOBO, Flávio Bolsonaro received 42% support in a hypothetical runoff against President Lula. Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator affiliated with the Liberal Party (PL), while President Lula belongs to the Workers’ Party (PT). President Lula’s figure was 41%.
However, the poll’s margin of error was 2% points in either direction. Since the difference between the two candidates was 1% point, the results technically fell within the range of a tie, even though Flávio Bolsonaro was ahead numerically. This is why the actual runoff winner cannot be determined from these figures alone.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to 20 among 2,004 voters (2004), with a confidence level of 95%. The results were registered with Brazil’s electoral authorities as BR-06004/2026.
The Gap Remained Small Compared with a Week Earlier
In the previous poll by the same polling organization, Flávio Bolsonaro had 42% and President Lula had 40%. This time, Flávio Bolsonaro’s figure remained unchanged while President Lula rose by 1% point, narrowing the gap from 2% points to 1% point.
Among independent voters who had not settled on a political orientation, Flávio Bolsonaro fell by 2% points, from 36% to 34%, while President Lula held at 26%. In this group, responses indicating an invalid or blank ballot, or an intention not to vote, increased from 29% to 31%.
In the hypothetical first-round poll, President Lula was at 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%. The report also described this as a technical tie within the margin of error.
First Poll Taken After Announcement of Bolsa Família Increase
The previous Thursday, President Lula announced an increase to Bolsa Família, a support program for low-income households. According to the government’s announcement, the minimum benefit will rise from 600 reais to 691 reais, while the average benefit will increase from 675 reais to 777 reais.
O GLOBO reported that this Quaest poll was the first to measure the policy’s electoral impact after the announcement. The increase is scheduled to take effect between the first-round and runoff elections. However, this single poll did not provide grounds for concluding that the announcement caused a change in any particular candidate’s approval rating.
Meanwhile, VEJA reported that a separate poll of 1,600 voters in Pernambuco will be conducted from September 23 to 26 and released on the 28th. The poll was registered to include a hypothetical runoff between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, candidate favorability ratings, and evaluations of the Lula administration. This is a polling plan, and its results have not yet been released.
References
Tags #FlavioBolsonaro #Lula #BrazilianPresidentialElection #BrazilianPresidentialElectionPoll #PresidentialElectionPoll #Quaest #BolsaFamilia #RunoffElection #FlavioLula #BrazilianPolitics #Pernambuco #RealTimeBigData