In a hypothetical presidential matchup among voters in Brazil’s Alagoas state, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was recorded as leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
A gap appeared in both the first-round and runoff scenarios, but these are not actual election results; they are the results of a single poll conducted from September 4–9.
The figures have drawn attention because Alagoas is a state in Brazil’s Northeast, and reports say that in other states in the region, President Lula’s lead has often been larger.
3-line summary
1. Lula led in the Alagoas poll.
2. The runoff hypothetical showed a gap of 10% points.
3. The poll is not an election result.
47.7% to 37% in the First-Round Scenario
In a poll released on September 10, AtlasIntel asked 1,208 (1208) Alagoas voters about the hypothetical field for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. The survey was conducted from September 4 to 9, using internet-based random digital recruitment, CartaCapital reported. The margin of error was ±3% points, the confidence level was 95%, and the election authority registration number was BR-07020/2026.
In the first-round scenario, President Lula received 47.7%, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro received 37.0% (37%). The difference between the two candidates was 10.7% points. President Lula was reported as belonging to the Workers’ Party (PT), while Flávio Bolsonaro belonged to the Liberal Party (PL).
The poll also included other figures. Writer Augusto Cury received 7.1%, Renan Santos received 3.4%, and Ronaldo Caiado received 2.3%. However, these numbers should not simply be read as definitive levels of support for each candidate. They reflect hypothetical voting intentions based on responses at the time of the survey.
VEJA reported that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro achieved his strongest performance against President Lula in Alagoas among the nine states in the Northeast. This assessment describes the regional polling trend compared by that outlet, while the direct figures shown by this poll are the responses from Alagoas.
50.6% to 40.0% in the Runoff Hypothetical
In a runoff scenario between the two candidates, President Lula was recorded at 50.6% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 40.0%. The difference was 10.6% points. Invalid, blank, and undecided responses accounted for 9.4%.
In the same poll, the hypothetical runoff between President Lula and Augusto Cury was 46.5% to 36.3%, while the matchup against Caiado was 50.6% to 30.6%. The matchup against Zema was also 51.7% to 30.6%. In the scenario involving Renan Santos, President Lula received 50.3% and the opposing candidate received 25.6%.
Judging by the numbers alone, President Lula led in every runoff scenario presented. However, the proportions of invalid, blank, and undecided responses also differed across candidate pairings. For example, the figure was 9.4% in the matchup with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, but 24.1% in the matchup with Renan Santos. This is why the share of responses that have not yet been decided should be considered alongside each candidate’s vote share, rather than comparing candidate percentages alone.
Government Ratings Were Closely Divided
The poll also asked Alagoas respondents to assess the Lula government. Those who approved of the government accounted for 51%, while those who disapproved accounted for 47%. “Don’t know” responses accounted for 2%.
Among the evaluation categories, “very good” and “good” accounted for 45%, “bad” and “very bad” for 43%, and “average” for 12%. Thus, while President Lula led in the hypothetical presidential choice, the difference between positive and negative responses was smaller in the government evaluation categories.
Brazil’s nationwide presidential race cannot be described on the basis of this single poll. The sample was limited to voters in Alagoas, and the results reflect responses during the survey period. However, the findings show how the gap between candidates and government evaluations appeared together in one particular state.
References
Tags #AtlasIntel #BrazilPolling #BrazilianElection #2026BrazilianElection #Alagoas #Lula #LuizInácioLulaDaSilva #FlávioBolsonaro #BrazilianPolitics #PresidentialPolling #RunoffElection #BrazilianPresidentialElection