Reports that ships were attacked off Yemen emerged one after another over two days.
It may sound like a distant country’s story, but ships carrying our crude oil travel through those waters. They have since this April.
Why that route?
3-line summary
1. Yemen’s Houthis are targeting Saudi ships, not the entire shipping route.
2. The number of cargo ships passing through the Red Sea chokepoint has fallen to as few as 11 a day.
3. No impact on domestic prices has been reported yet.
One Ship on the 4th, Another Five Days Later
On the 4th, an Indian merchant ship sank in the Red Sea near Yemen. The Yemeni government said it had been attacked by unmanned boats and projectiles. All 14 people aboard were rescued, with no casualties. The Houthis did not comment on the incident.
The next day, the Houthis claimed to have attacked the Saudi oil tanker *Wafa* with a ballistic missile. The location was off Yanbu in the northern Red Sea.
Both incidents involved individual ships. They do not mean the entire shipping route has been shut down. That distinction becomes important later.
Crude Oil Crosses the Desert
Saudi crude oil is normally loaded onto ships in the Persian Gulf and exits through the Strait of Hormuz. But that strait was blocked in late February.
Saudi Arabia therefore sent crude oil through a pipeline crossing the country to the Red Sea coast on the other side. Its endpoint is the Port of Yanbu. From there, ships load the crude and travel south through the Red Sea, passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow passage between Yemen and Africa, into the Indian Ocean.
Korean oil tankers first took this route this April. The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries sent them out under 24-hour monitoring, and 15 vessels had arrived by the same route as of July 21.
For us, the Red Sea is not just a shortcut to Europe; it is a newly established detour after Hormuz was blocked.
One Ship Is Not the Same as One Shipping Route
What the Houthis declared on July 20 was a maritime blockade targeting Saudi Arabia. They said it would apply to ships loading or unloading cargo at Saudi ports. They did not say they would block every ship passing through the Red Sea.
Still, a declaration and actual passage are different. If a route appears dangerous, ships avoid it on their own.
On July 26, 11 cargo ships passed through Bab el-Mandeb. Reuters, citing figures from shipping data firm Kpler, reported that this was the lowest number in months.
The direction matters more than the number. It means that even ships not subject to the blockade have declined.
Twenty-Four Days Become Fifty-Four
The Red Sea is a long north-south sea with only two exits: Bab el-Mandeb in the south and the Suez Canal in the north.
If the southern route cannot be used, ships must leave through the north. But that route goes up into the Mediterranean, through Gibraltar and down into the Atlantic, around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s southern tip, and back to Asia.
Al Jazeera, citing experts, reported that a voyage from Yanbu to Korea that took 24 days would take 54 days. That adds another month.
Large oil tankers cannot pass through the Suez Canal when fully loaded with crude oil. The cargo must be transferred to smaller ships, adding further costs.
Longer voyages raise fuel costs, and those added costs are reflected in freight rates. Freight rates are part of import costs.
Domestic Prices: Not Yet
There have been no reports yet of an impact on domestic prices or exports and imports.
On August 2, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said it had secured petroleum imports for August and September at volumes above last year’s average and was securing October volumes sequentially.
As of July 21, 10 of the 15 tankers that had passed through the Red Sea had completed unloading, while five were approaching after leaving the danger zone. At that time, there were no Korean ships remaining in the Red Sea or reporting plans to enter it.
One condition was attached: if the disruption to passage persists, the burden could grow from October onward.
What to Watch
We will not make an outlook for fuel prices. Instead, here are three things that can be checked in the news.
Does the scope of the blockade expand? For now, it applies only to ships connected to Saudi Arabia.
How many ships pass each day? The number of vessels in transit is a straightforward measure of risk.
October. The volumes the government says it has secured extend only through September.
Why the News Feels Closer
An attack on one oil tanker and the closure of a shipping route are different events. For now, it is the former.
Still, these are waters we did not originally use, and we began using them after Hormuz was blocked in late February this year. If news from off Yemen feels closer than before, that is why.
References
- Aju Business Daily Indian merchant ship attacked and sunk in Red Sea…All 14 crew members rescued
- Single List Houthi rebels: “Saudi oil tanker attacked in Red Sea”
- Hankook Ilbo Houthi rebels: “Two Saudi oil tankers attacked with missiles”
- NewsPim Only 11 cargo ships a day pass through Red Sea chokepoint
- Al Jazeera Can the Suez save Asian oil consumers?
- Policy Briefing Korean oil tankers pass through the Red Sea detour route
- Youth Daily Government: “No problems with crude oil supply and demand through September”
- The Korea Economic Daily Government checks supply and demand…Strategic oil swap if necessary
This article is informational and summarizes reported facts; it does not forecast the direction of oil prices or maritime freight rates. Conditions may change, so check announcements from each institution for the latest information.