Tropical Depression No. 54 is moving northwestward over the waters approximately northwest of Guam on September 23.
The Korea Meteorological Administration expected the tropical depression to develop into a typhoon and head toward the waters east of the Philippines and near Taiwan.
However, it is still difficult to determine whether the Korean Peninsula will be directly affected based solely on the forecast track that has been issued.
3-Line Summary
1. Tropical Depression No. 54 is moving northwestward
2. A forecast has been issued that it will develop into Typhoon Surigae
3. Its impact on the Korean Peninsula is still difficult to assess
Tropical Depression Observed Over Waters Northwest of Guam
According to reports citing an announcement by the Korea Meteorological Administration, Tropical Depression No. 54 was over the waters approximately 540㎞ northwest of Guam at 3 a.m. on September 23. Its central pressure was presented as 1008hPa, and its maximum sustained wind near the center was 15m/s. Its direction of movement was northwest or north-northwest, while its speed was reported by different outlets as 15~26㎞/h.
The tropical depression has not yet reached typhoon status. The Korea Meteorological Administration expected it to strengthen to a maximum wind speed of 18m/s and develop into a typhoon around 3 a.m. on the 24th. If it is named as a typhoon, it will be Surigae, a name submitted by North Korea that means the black kite, a bird of prey.
The Japan Meteorological Agency separately classified the system as “Tropical Depression b” and began issuing a typhoon forecast. The agency expected it to develop into a typhoon over the waters east of the Philippines by 9 p.m. on the 23rd. These are the forecast timing and estimates of the respective agencies, and do not constitute an announcement that typhoon formation has been confirmed.
Expected to Head Toward Taiwan via Waters East of the Philippines
The Korea Meteorological Administration’s forecast track shows the tropical depression passing over the waters east of Luzon in the Philippines before approaching Taiwan. It was projected to reach waters northeast of Manila in the Philippines in the morning of the 25th and waters approximately 700㎞ east-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, in the morning of the 27th.
The projected intensity also increases over time. The Korea Meteorological Administration expected a maximum wind speed of 27m/s in the morning of the 27th and said it could develop to approximately 35m/s and 970hPa over waters approximately 500㎞ east-northeast of Taiwan in the morning of the 28th. These figures are forecasts based on the assumption that it will move and develop along the projected track.
The Japan Meteorological Agency expected it to strengthen after moving northwestward to waters south of Okinawa around the 26th. Both forecasts present a flow extending from east of the Philippines toward waters between Taiwan and Okinawa, but its subsequent direction of movement has not been confirmed.
Why It Is Too Early to Conclude the Weather in South Korea
The impact on the Korean Peninsula will depend on how strong the tropical depression becomes, how quickly it moves northward, and in which direction it turns afterward. The Korea Meteorological Administration stated that it is difficult to determine whether South Korea will be directly affected based only on the currently projected track.
In particular, during the development process, the system is affected by surrounding pressure systems, sea-surface temperatures, and upper-level winds. The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) analyzed that sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear were favorable for development, but this is an assessment of the development environment and does not confirm the final track or affected areas.
The most important distinction in this matter is not to treat the “forecast of typhoon development” and “confirmation of an impact on the Korean Peninsula” as the same thing. What is currently confirmed is the tropical depression over waters near Guam and the projected track toward Taiwan; any impact on South Korea must be assessed alongside changes in the track in subsequent announcements.
References
Tags #TropicalDepression #TropicalDepressionNo54 #TyphoonSurigae #Surigae #TyphoonTrack #KoreaMeteorologicalAdministration #Guam #WatersEastOfThePhilippines #NearTaiwan #Okinawa #KoreanPeninsulaWeather #TyphoonForecast #JTWC