Kioxia Holdings (キオクシアホールディングス), a semiconductor memory company, saw its stock fall sharply after its June peak.
Although it rebounded after a sharp decline at the end of July, in mid-September, when the reports were published, it continued moving in the 50-thousand range.
As expanded AI investment raised expectations for earnings, the key issue became how much had already been priced into the stock.
3-line summary
1. Kioxia’s stock plunged after its June peak.
2. It fell from 11万2700 to 3万6020.
3. AI expectations and whether they are already reflected in the stock price must be considered together.
The July 30 plunge after the June 22 peak
Kioxia Holdings is a major semiconductor memory company. According to a Money Post WEB report, the company’s stock reached 11万2700, its highest level since listing, on June 22. On the same day, the Nikkei Stock Average also set an all-time high at 7万2831.
However, Kioxia Holdings’ stock fell to 3万6020 at one point during trading on July 30. That was approximately one-third of its June peak. Although it recovered somewhat afterward, the report said it continued fluctuating in the 50-thousand range.
Another Money Post WEB report described this plunge as the “Kioxia Shock.” According to that report, the Nikkei Stock Average fell below 6万1000 at the end of July and was moving in the low 6万 range in mid-September. Kioxia Holdings’ volatility became a market focus as it coincided with a correction in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks.
Earnings expectations and stock-price expectations are not the same thing
Individual investor Kaboku Taro said that Kioxia Holdings had presented forecasts for substantial increases in both revenue and profit for the July–September quarter of 2026. He explained that data-center investment needed for AI’s large-scale data processing was continuing, and that investment demand was spreading beyond semiconductors to the electrical, machinery, and construction sectors.
However, it is this investor’s view that the strength of the AI and semiconductor industries has likely already been reflected in stock prices. He cited as the basis for this view the uncertainty over how much actual profit can be recovered from the enormous investment in data centers. The fact that an earnings outlook has been presented and the price at which the market reflects those expectations are separate issues, he said.
He forecast that the phase in which stocks rose together simply because they were related to AI or semiconductors had passed, and that selection among individual stocks could proceed from here. This is an individual investor’s outlook on future developments, not a confirmed market result. In this volatility, the key is to distinguish between the industry trend of expanding AI investment and how much of that expectation is already embedded in prices.
References
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