A tropical depression is forecast to form south of Japan on 13, drawing attention to Japan’s rain and wind outlook after 18.
As an autumnal rain front is positioned near Japan, there is analysis that the risk of heavy rain could increase if the tropical depression approaches.
However, the tropical depression’s track and whether it will develop into a typhoon have not yet been determined.
3-Line Summary
1. Forecast for a tropical depression to form south of Japan on 13
2. Concern about warning-level heavy rain in Hokuriku on 15
3. The track after 18 remains uncertain
Rain Intensifies When the Front and Tropical Depression Overlap
tenki.jp forecast that a tropical depression—called a “typhoon embryo”—would form south of Japan on 13. This expression does not mean that it has already become a typhoon; it refers to a tropical depression with the potential to develop in the future.
The issue is the autumnal rain front. According to reports, on 13~14 the front is expected to move northward, stretching from the Sea of Japan side of western Japan to the vicinity of Tohoku, with rain forecast mainly on the Sea of Japan side. On 15, as a low-pressure system passes over the front, concerns have been raised about warning-level heavy rain, mainly in the Hokuriku region.
Damage cannot be presumed solely because rain is forecast to continue for several days. However, the key point of this forecast is that when moisture and winds from a tropical depression or typhoon are added to where the front remains, the rain could intensify all at once.
A Forecast Also Emerged for a “Whirlwind” to Approach Around 18
Yahoo! News, which reported on coverage by RCC Chugoku Broadcasting, said that one of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s forecast models showed a concerning whirlwind approaching south of Japan around 18. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS forecast also presented the possibility that this system could move north after 18 and directly affect western Japan.
However, the report explicitly stated that this track forecast has a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, rather than accepting a “landfall in western Japan” or damage in a specific area as certain, it is necessary to monitor how the tropical depression’s development and the front’s position change together.
Possibility of Rain Through the Holiday Period Around 20~23
tenki.jp forecast that the Kyushu~Tokai regions would be generally sunny from 18 through 19, while rain would fall from Kanto~Hokkaido. From 20 through 23, it said that cloudy conditions would prevail nationwide, with weather expected to make rain more likely.
The same report said that some weather forecast models showed the possibility that a tropical depression or typhoon could affect the Japanese archipelago during this period. The most important distinction in this outlook is that the areas where concerns about heavy rain have been raised and the tropical depression’s actual track have not yet been fixed. Travel and outdoor plans in each region of Japan need to be judged based on the latest weather and typhoon information.
References
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