A Brazilian presidential election poll released in September showed a very close hypothetical runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
However, national figures alone make it difficult to see how the two candidates’ support bases are divided.
Looking at figures for Pernambuco alongside breakdowns by region, religion, and income shows that large gaps and close races can coexist within a single poll.
3-line summary
1. The Lula–Flávio runoff was 47% to 45%
2. The gaps in the Northeast and among evangelicals were large
3. Detailed subgroup figures should be considered together with the margin of error
The nationwide hypothetical runoff showed a 2%-point difference
In a Datafolha poll reported by G1, President Lula recorded 47% support in the hypothetical runoff, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro recorded 45%. The poll was conducted among 2,002 people aged 16 and over on September 22–23, with a confidence level of 95%.
This 2%-point difference fell within the range presented by the poll and was classified as a statistical tie. A statistical tie means that it is not possible to state definitively who is actually ahead; it is not a conclusive result that the two candidates have the same level of support.
Figures that divide respondents again by age, education, or region, for example, are based on smaller samples and therefore have larger margins of error. Among those aged 16–24, for instance, Flávio had 47% and Lula 45%, but the margin of error was ±6%-points. This is why one should first examine whether the difference falls outside the margin of error, rather than focusing on the order of the numbers.
The gap became clear in the Northeast and among evangelicals
Unlike the nationwide close race, the differences in some groups widened beyond the margin of error. In the Northeast, Lula had 61% and Flávio 30%, while among Black respondents the figures were 55% to 34%. Among women as well, Lula led 51% to 41%.
Flávio led among evangelical Christians, 58% to 34%, and in the South, 57% to 38%. Among those with incomes exceeding 5 times the monthly minimum wage, the figures were 52% to 38%. Even with the same runoff matchup, the contest looked entirely different depending on which group of voters was considered.
Lula’s margin was larger in Pernambuco
In a poll of Pernambuco reported by VEJA, Lula had 60% in the hypothetical first-round contest, while Flávio had 24%. In the hypothetical runoff, the figures were 64% to 29%, producing a larger gap.
The poll was conducted among 1,204 voters in Pernambuco from September 22–24, with a margin of error of ±3%-points. The figures for Pernambuco, Lula’s home state, should not be read as data for directly comparing nationwide results and determining the winner. Rather, they are best understood as an example of how different regional support distributions can be.
The most important point in these figures is that the narrow nationwide difference and the large regional gaps exist at the same time. Even when reading a single runoff matchup, it is necessary to distinguish between overall support and the margins of error for detailed subgroups.
References
Tags #BrazilianPresidentialElection #Datafolha #Lula #FlavioBolsonaro #BrazilianOpinionPoll #BrazilianPolitics #PresidentialElection #RunoffElection #Pernambuco #Northeast #Evangelical #ApprovalRating #StatisticalTie