Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was found to hold a substantial lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in a poll conducted in the state of Alagoas.
A gap appeared under both first-round and runoff-election scenarios, but these were the results of a survey of voters in that state.
National and state-level polls use different samples and survey scopes and should not be read as representing the same figures.
3-Line Summary
1. Lula leads in the Alagoas poll
2. The first-round result was 50% to 31%
3. The scope of the state-level poll should be examined
19% Point Gap in the Alagoas First Round
In a Real Time Big Data poll reported by VEJA, President Lula received 50% in first-round voting intentions in the state of Alagoas. Flávio Bolsonaro received 31%, a difference of 19 percentage points between the two.
The poll was conducted among 1,600 (1600) people in the state of Alagoas from September 10 to 14, with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The registration number with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is BR-05711/2026.
In the same poll, writer Augusto Cur y received 5%, Renan Santos received 3%, Ronaldo Caiado received 2%, and Pablo Marçal and Romeu Zema each received 1%. Figures for invalid or blank ballots and nonresponses were also provided, so voters’ choices cannot be considered determined based solely on candidate support rates.
Lula 55%, Flávio 37% in the Runoff Scenario
In a question based on a runoff-election scenario, President Lula received 55%, while Flávio Bolsonaro received 37%. Both candidates’ figures were higher than in the first-round voting-intentions poll, but this too was a hypothetical scenario involving respondents in the state of Alagoas.
On the candidate unfavorable-rating item, Flávio Bolsonaro was listed at 57% and President Lula at 36%. Regarding the Lula administration, 58% said they approved and 37% said they disapproved. In the government evaluation, 40% rated it “very good·good,” 34% “bad·very bad,” and 24% “average.”
There was also a nationwide Quaest poll. According to G1, the survey interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 and over nationwide from September 10 to 13, with a margin of error of ±2 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. In this poll, Augusto Cury was reported at 7%, while Caiado and Santos were each at 4%, and Zema at 1%. However, the article did not provide nationwide figures for President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, so the results cannot be directly compared with those of the Alagoas poll.
These figures show the distribution of responses in the state of Alagoas. Rather than broadly interpreting them as evidence that establishes the nationwide competitive landscape or the actual election result, it is important to consider that the survey locations and question formats differ.
References
Tags #BrazilianPresidentialElection #BrazilianOpinionPoll #Lula #LuizInacioLulaDaSilva #FlavioBolsonaro #Alagoas #RealTimeBigData #Quaest #BrazilianElection #PresidentialElection #RunoffElection #ElectionOpinionPoll