Ahead of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, support for Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva varied by region.
In São Paulo, the two candidates were within the margin of error in first-round voting intention, while Flávio Bolsonaro led in a hypothetical runoff matchup. Minas Gerais was a close contest on both questions.
Rather than determining the national landscape based on a single poll, the methodology and regional differences should be considered together.
3-line summary
1. The first-round vote in São Paulo is tied within the margin of error
2. The hypothetical São Paulo runoff matchup is 47% to 42%
3. The national landscape cannot be determined from regional polls alone
São Paulo first-round vote tied within margin of error; runoff is 47% to 42%
Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is a senator affiliated with the Liberal Party (PL). Lula, of the Workers’ Party (PT), is the incumbent president. In a poll conducted by Datafolha from September 8 to 10, first-round voting intention among voters in São Paulo state was 35% for Flávio and 33% for Lula.
The margin of sampling error for São Paulo in this poll was ±2% points. G1 and Folha de S.Paulo reported that the two candidates were technically within the tie range. In other words, a numerical lead and a statistically clear advantage are not the same thing.
In the hypothetical São Paulo runoff matchup presented by Folha de S.Paulo, Flávio received 47% and Lula 42%. However, these were responses to a hypothetical matchup conducted at a specific point in time, not actual voting results.
Minas Gerais is 37% to 35%, with a close runoff as well
In the Minas Gerais first-round voting poll, Lula received 37% and Flávio 35%. Because the margin of sampling error in the region was ±3% points, G1 reported that the two candidates were technically tied.
In Folha de S.Paulo’s report on the same poll, the hypothetical Minas Gerais runoff matchup showed Lula at 46% and Flávio at 45%. This difference was also within the ±3% margin of error. Since first-round voting and a hypothetical runoff matchup are different questions, one figure cannot be used to explain the other.
Regional differences shown by Rio, Pernambuco, and the Federal District
According to G1, first-round voting intention in Rio de Janeiro state was 39% for Flávio and 35% for Lula, while in the Federal District it was 40% for Flávio and 32% for Lula. By contrast, in Pernambuco, Lula received 55% and Flávio 24%.
Folha de S.Paulo’s hypothetical runoff figures also showed a similar regional contrast. In Rio de Janeiro, Flávio received 49% and Lula 41%; in Pernambuco, Lula received 61% and Flávio 30%; and in the Federal District, Flávio received 51% and Lula 39%.
The clearest point in these figures is that the relative standing of the two candidates did not move in the same direction in every region. The small gaps in São Paulo and Minas Gerais should be read separately from the margins of sampling error specified for each poll.
References
Tags #FlavioBolsonaro #Lula #BrazilianPresidentialElection #BrazilianPolitics #Datafolha #BrazilianPolling #SãoPaulo #MinasGerais #RioDeJaneiro #Pernambuco #BrazilPolitics #RunoffElection