The name spotted in the Brazilian search market refers to Kazakhstani tennis player Elena Rybakina.
The focus is her advancement to the US Open third round in New York and the possibility of becoming world No. 1 for the first time in her career.
However, being No. 1 in the live rankings during a match does not mean the same thing as being No. 1 in the official rankings set by the WTA.
3-line summary
1. Rybakina has reached the third round of the US Open
2. Reaching the semifinals is the condition that guarantees the No. 1 ranking
3. No. 1 in the live rankings is not a confirmed ranking
The semifinal condition left behind after 6-2, 6-4
Rybakina defeated Spain’s Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-2, 6-4 to advance to the third round of the US Open. The match ended after 1 hour and 8 minutes. She created two breaks in the first set and briefly wavered at 5-2 in the second. After losing her service game at 5-3, she immediately broke back in the 10th game to secure the victory.
The statistics show how Rybakina took control of the match. She recorded 22 winners and 7 aces, with 15 unforced errors. She converted four of six break points. Bouzas Maneiro finished with 13 winners and 12 unforced errors, converting one of two break points.
The greatest significance of this victory is that the benchmark of the semifinals has become clearer than the next round itself. According to a WTA Tennis report, if Rybakina reaches the semifinals in New York, she will be guaranteed to finish the tournament as world No. 1, regardless of the results of other players. For a player who has never reached No. 1, this is a much more concrete condition than a mere “possibility.”
Rybakina had competed at the US Open seven times before this tournament but had never advanced beyond the fourth round. She must break through that barrier for the first time and reach the semifinals to resolve both challenges—the tournament result and the ranking race. Therefore, her current advancement to the third round is not the result of reaching the top, but a process that has reduced the number of wins remaining before the conditions are confirmed.
No. 1 on the screen and No. 2 in the official rankings
Around the start of the tournament, reports said that Rybakina was listed first in the WTA live rankings with 7,911 points (7911). Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka followed with 6,585 points (6585), while American Jessica Pegula was third with 6,555 points (6555). Looking only at the numbers, it could appear that Rybakina had already reached the top.
However, the live rankings reflect the standings assuming the tournament ended at that moment. They change frequently during the tournament as players earn new points in matches and the previous year’s tournament points are removed. According to reports, the 2025 US Open points were deducted from players’ totals before this tournament, and Sabalenka, the defending champion, lost 2,000 points (2000). Rybakina had relatively few points to defend, allowing her to move ahead in the live rankings.
The official WTA rankings showed different numbers. In the same report, based on the WTA website, Rybakina was second with 8,141 points (8141), while Sabalenka was first with 8,575 points (8575). The No. 1 position in the live rankings is an interim result based on calculations, whereas the official rankings are updated according to a set schedule. That is why the phrase “currently No. 1” alone cannot be taken to mean that her first world No. 1 ranking has been confirmed.
That is why the semifinal condition matters. If Rybakina reaches the semifinals, there will be no need to separately calculate fluctuations in the live rankings or the results of other players. Conversely, if she stops before that stage, the tournament results of Sabalenka, American Coco Gauff, and Pegula could also affect the ranking conclusion.
Where the rematch with Starodubtseva stands
Her third-round opponent is Ukraine’s Yuliia Starodubtseva. The two players have met once on tour, with Starodubtseva winning at the French Open, 3-6, 6-1, 7-6(10-4). Rybakina fought back from 0-3 in the final set to take the match to a tiebreak, but Starodubtseva earned the biggest victory of her career.
In the second round of this US Open, Starodubtseva defeated No. 22 seed Maria Sakkari 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 to reach the third round for the first time. It was a comeback victory in which she saved three match points. For Rybakina, the match is the next hurdle in the ranking race and also an opportunity to avenge her only head-to-head defeat.
WTA Tennis reported that Rybakina is 12-0 this year on hard courts in matches against players ranked outside the world’s top 50 that she played through to the finish. Her match against Starodubtseva, currently ranked 58th in the world, will show both whether that record continues and whether her path to the semifinals remains open. Before focusing on the ranking numbers visible in New York, the first fact to confirm is whether Rybakina can clear the conditions one match at a time.
References
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