They are reports on the same company, sitting side by side right now.
Yet the prices deemed appropriate range from 37-man won to 67-man won.
It is not that one of them is wrong. These figures are inherently that kind of number.
3-line summary
1. Goldman Sachs raised its Samsung Electronics price target to 49-man won.
2. Another securities firm’s price target at the same time was 37-man won.
3. A price target is a forecast, not a promise.
The Numbers Currently Out There
These are Samsung Electronics price targets as of early August, compiled by Global Economic. The closing price on August 3 was 23-man 9,500 won.
| Securities firm | Price target |
|---|---|
| Nomura | 67-man won |
| Korea Investment & Securities | 65-man won |
| Goldman Sachs | 49-man won |
| Shinhan Securities | 45-man won |
| Samsung Securities | 40-man won |
| JPMorgan | 40-man won |
| Mirae Asset Securities | 37-man won |
The gap between the highest and lowest is 30-man won. The high end is nearly twice the low end.
This makes you want to ask, “Who is right?” But the question itself misunderstands the nature of a price target.
How Price Targets Are Made
The most common way to arrive at a price target is a single multiplication.
Expected earnings per share × a multiple deemed appropriate for the company
The first is called EPS, and the multiple is called PER. If earnings per share are 1-man won and the multiple is 10 times, the result is 10-man won. At a multiple of 15 times, the same earnings produce 15-man won.
The answer is already visible here. Both values being multiplied are estimates. How much the company will earn is an estimate, and so is how many times the market will value those earnings.
A Single Multiple Changes the Answer
The latest Samsung Electronics reports illustrate this.
Goldman Sachs cited a 2027 forecast price-to-earnings ratio of 3.1 times and a price-to-book ratio of 1.2 times. Its premise was that memory demand would continue to significantly exceed supply as AI server investment rises. It said that 60~70% of total production capacity is tied up in long-term supply contracts, with minimum guaranteed-price clauses limiting downside risk. It also newly added the company to its Asia-Pacific most-preferred stock list.
JPMorgan is on the other side. It lowered its target multiple from 8 times to 6 times. It cited slowing high-bandwidth memory demand from certain customer groups and delays in next-generation product certification as risks.
Looking at the same company, one side raised its earnings outlook while the other lowered the multiple assigned to those earnings. The results diverge to 49-man won and 40-man won.
What I find interesting here is this: the two reports are not disputing how much Samsung Electronics will earn. They are disputing how long the market will continue to believe in those earnings. A multiple is the numerical expression of the duration of that belief.
The 12-Month Qualification
A price target usually comes with a time period. Most often, 12 months.
This condition is important, but it is often cut away. A headline saying “It will reach 49-man won” has no time period, but the original statement is: “We believe this level is appropriate within the next 1 year.”
And during that 1 year, analysts revise their price targets several times. This Goldman Sachs revision also raised the target from 48-man won to 49-man won. It is not a figure that waits for a judgment on whether it was reached; it moves as conditions change.
Price targets and investment ratings also operate separately. An investment rating is a grade such as buy, neutral, or sell, while a price target is a price. It is common to raise a target while keeping the rating unchanged, and that is not inconsistent. If the share price has already risen in line with the improved earnings outlook, the distance between the two can remain the same.
The “average price target” seen on portals is simply the average of these figures. The midpoint between 37-man won and 67-man won is 52-man won, but no one issued a 52-man won target.
Why Reports Include a Disparity Rate
If you open a securities firm’s report, there is a table toward the back. It states how far the actual share price during the period differed from the price target previously presented. This is called the disparity rate.
This is not a courtesy; it is a requirement. Since September 2017, financial regulators have required reports to include this figure. It followed longstanding criticism that price targets were set excessively high.
Earlier, in May 2015, each securities firm was required to disclose the proportion of buy, neutral, and sell ratings in its own reports. This was due to criticism that reports were overwhelmingly tilted toward buy ratings.
The two systems convey the same point: price targets have structural reasons to tilt in one direction, which is why regulators required accompanying reference figures.
So What Should You Look At?
Not the number in the headline, but three things.
What multiple was used? Whether the target PER is 6 times or 10 times accounts for half the conclusion. This value is written in the report.
Which year’s earnings were used as the basis? Earnings for 2026 and earnings for 2028 are entirely different stories. The more distant the year used, the larger the target price—and the greater the uncertainty.
What is the premise? In these reports, AI server demand and long-term supply contracts were common premises. If those premises weaken, the price targets will move with them. Remembering the premise lasts longer than memorizing the number.
All three can be found in the original reports. PDF reports from domestic securities firms are available free of charge through Naver Pay Securities Research and Hankyung Consensus. Instead of relying on the single number in an article headline, look at the target PER and reference year on the first page of the original report, as well as the disparity-rate table toward the back. It takes 3 minutes.
A price target is an analyst’s assumptions compressed into a single number. When you read only the compressed number, the assumptions disappear and only certainty remains.
When you see 37-man won and 67-man won together in a table, what those numbers are becomes clearer instead.
References
- Global Economic Global IB Samsung Electronics Price Targets…Goldman 2 Times, Nomura 3 Times
- Seoul Economic Daily Goldman: “Samsung Electronics Is Headed to 49-man Won”…Newly Added to Asia-Pacific Most-Preferred Stocks
- Munhwa Ilbo Goldman Sachs: “Samsung Electronics Is Headed to 49-man Won”…Added to APAC Most-Preferred Stocks
- Korea Economic Daily 1 Year After Introduction of Price-Target Disparity-Rate Disclosure…‘Inflation’ Practice Persists
- Seoul Economic Daily It Will Become Harder for Securities Firms to Change Investment Ratings and Targets Like Rubber Bands
This article is informational content explaining how the price-target metric is created and does not recommend buying or selling any particular stock. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions and outcomes, and should consult a qualified financial investment professional regarding individual stocks.